Climate change: how will it play out on the Nile?

Hi, today's blog will shift the lens to climate change, to discuss what we can expect to see on the Nile, how this will impact the approaches that have been looked at in earlier blogs, and what can be done to alleviate stresses placed on the shared water resources. 

Climate impacts on the Nile Basin could be severe. Lower frequency and higher intensity of precipitation will amplify the variability of Nile water flows, and further stress resources (Fischer and Knutti 2015). Although higher overall river flow is possible, reductions could drastically exacerbate water and food security threats (Link et al 2012). Food supply will also be threatened by increased rainfall variability and likely increasing irrigation (Challinor et al 2016), rising sea levels are also increasing soil salinity in the Nile Delta - threatening food supply (Africa News 2022). In scenarios of lower overall river flow, threats to human security will build tensions between riparian states as governments vie to secure precious Nile waters (Barnes 2017).

 

Challenges to cooperative water management are already rife in the Nile basin, with the partial rejection of the CFA, states lack the foundations to mitigate coming issues. The largest adaptive capacities for vulnerable states lie in the water and agricultural use sectors, these are focal points for tension between riparian states (Piontek 2010). Climate change, therefore, is likely to grow tensions in the basin, with state-centred approaches likely to become more common as water security is threatened, amid an already fragile geopolitical situation (Swain 2010).

 

The issue is clear, unilateral approaches prevent benefit sharing and will serve to cause tensions, hindering efficient use of water in the long term. An endorsement from Egypt and Sudan of the CFA, a rejection of short-sighted unilateral action and an embrace of multilateral action by all players is needed for riparian states to be able to best share the Nile's resources and adapt to climate change. We therefore must see climate change as a strong incentive for cooperation (Link et al 2012).

 

Therefore, cooperative adaptive techniques that could be found and fostered through the Cooperative Framework Agreement are needed to deal with the water pressures already present that will grow with climate change. My next and final blog will look to the future and examine some ways that have been put forward for how the states on the Nile can best deal with both geopolitical and environmental threats to come.